Sweden’s Prison Crisis: Why Hundreds of Inmates Are Heading to Estonia

Sweden’s Exploding Prison Population: How Did It Happen?

Did you know Sweden, once known for its progressive justice system, now faces a prison population crisis? Over the past decade, Sweden has seen a dramatic rise in gang-related violence and tougher sentencing. In 2024, Swedish prisons housed 7,530 inmates but had only 5,022 available beds. By May 2025, the occupancy rate soared to 141%. This isn’t just a numbers game—overcrowding has led to tense conditions, double-occupancy in tiny cells, and mounting pressure on staff. The government predicts the number of incarcerated people could reach up to 35,000 by 2033 if current trends continue. That would make Sweden the EU country with the highest number of prisoners per capita. It’s a massive shift for a nation that once prided itself on rehabilitation over punishment.

The Estonia Solution: Renting a Prison Abroad

Faced with this crisis, Sweden made a move that’s making headlines across Europe: it struck a deal to rent an entire prison in Tartu, Estonia. Starting July next year, up to 600 Swedish inmates—mostly men convicted of serious crimes—will serve their sentences in Estonia. Sweden will pay Estonia about €8,500 per inmate per month, which is actually cheaper than the €11,500 it costs to keep them at home. The agreement, announced by Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer, is still subject to parliamentary approval in both countries. If it goes through, Sweden will have exclusive use of the Tartu facility, with Swedish staff training Estonian guards to ensure the experience is as close as possible to serving time in Sweden.

Why Estonia? And What’s In It for Both Sides?

You might wonder: why Estonia? For Sweden, it’s a practical fix—Estonia has spare capacity, and the two countries share similar legal standards as EU members. For Estonia, the deal could bring in at least €30 million in revenue. But it’s not just about money. Estonia’s prison population has been dropping for years, leaving empty cells that can now be put to use. However, Estonian officials and the public have voiced concerns. Some worry that importing foreign inmates, especially those with gang ties, could bring new security risks or strain local resources. The Estonian Internal Security Service has flagged the danger of organized crime connections and the possibility of visits from foreign criminal networks. To address this, the agreement specifies that only certain categories of prisoners—mainly men with no known gang affiliations—will be transferred.

How Do Swedish and Estonian Prisons Compare?

The Tartu prison, where Swedish inmates will be sent, is a modern facility with both single and double cells. According to European guidelines, double cells should be at least 8 square meters, but due to overcrowding, Sweden has already started using double-occupancy cells as small as 6 square meters. The Estonian prison will operate under Estonian law, but Swedish staff will be present to oversee the adaptation of routines and ensure inmates’ rights are protected. Both countries are committed to upholding international human rights standards. Still, there’s debate about whether the experience will truly mirror Swedish incarceration, and how inmates will cope with being so far from home.

A European Trend: Outsourcing Prisoners

Sweden isn’t the first country to look abroad for prison space. Belgium and Norway have previously rented prison beds in the Netherlands, and Denmark has a controversial agreement to send prisoners to Kosovo. These arrangements are driven by similar pressures: rising inmate numbers, slow construction of new facilities, and the political drive to appear tough on crime. But they also raise ethical and practical questions. Is it fair to send people far from their families? Can host countries guarantee the same standards of care? And what happens if cultural or legal differences cause conflicts? In Sweden’s case, the government argues that renting space in Estonia is a temporary but necessary step while it builds new prisons at home.

Public Debate: Safety, Costs, and the Future of Swedish Justice

Not everyone in Sweden supports the Estonia deal. Critics say it’s a sign of policy failure—that the government should have invested in new prisons sooner or focused more on prevention and rehabilitation. Some worry about the risk of exporting Sweden’s gang problems, while others question whether the cost savings are worth the potential complications. Supporters, including the conservative Sweden Democrats, say it’s a practical solution to an urgent problem and a step toward making Sweden safer. The debate touches on bigger issues: how to balance punishment and rehabilitation, how to respond to rising crime, and whether international cooperation is the future of corrections.

What’s Next? Building for the Future

Sweden plans to add 18,000 new prison beds by 2033, but construction takes time and money. In the meantime, the government is preparing for a historic expansion of the correctional system—from 9,000 to 27,000 cells. This will require more staff, bigger budgets, and possibly more international deals. The Estonia agreement is expected to last at least three years, giving Sweden some breathing room. But as sentencing gets tougher and gang crime continues, many wonder if this is just the beginning of a new era for Swedish justice.

Global Lessons: What Can Other Countries Learn?

Sweden’s experience is a warning for other nations grappling with rising crime and prison overcrowding. Quick fixes like renting foreign prison space can help in the short term, but they don’t solve the underlying issues. Building more prisons, hiring more staff, and reforming sentencing laws all take time and political will. The Swedish case also shows the importance of international cooperation—and the challenges that come with it. As more countries face similar pressures, the debate over how to balance safety, justice, and human rights will only intensify.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Swedish Corrections

Sweden’s decision to send inmates to Estonia is more than a logistical move—it’s a symbol of how much the country has changed. Once a model of humane justice, Sweden now faces tough choices as it tries to keep up with a rapidly changing criminal landscape. Whether this experiment succeeds or sparks new problems, it’s sure to be watched closely by policymakers and the public across Europe and beyond. Have you ever heard of a country renting prison space abroad? What do you think about this approach to solving overcrowding? Share your thoughts below!