Trump Declares 'We're Very Close' to Iran Nuclear Deal - Key Gaps Remain as Tehran 'Sort of Agreed' to Terms

The Diplomatic Breakthrough: US and Iran on the Verge of a Nuclear Deal

In a significant diplomatic development, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday, May 15, 2025, that Washington is very close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, claiming Tehran has sort of agreed to the proposed terms. This announcement comes after four rounds of high-stakes negotiations between the two countries, mediated primarily by Oman, and represents the most substantial progress in US-Iran nuclear diplomacy since the United States withdrew from the previous 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in 2018.

Speaking during his Middle East tour in Qatar, Trump expressed optimism about avoiding military conflict, stating, We're not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran. I think we're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this. The president added, We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace, and if we do that, it'll be fantastic.

This potential breakthrough follows the fourth round of negotiations held in Oman on Sunday, where US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff presented a written proposal to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi - the first time such a formal document has been submitted to Tehran since talks began in early April. Araghchi reportedly took the proposal back to Iran for consultations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials.

The Path to Negotiations: How We Got Here

The current negotiations represent a dramatic shift after years of escalating tensions. In 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Trump stating at the time that the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction: that a murderous regime desired only a peaceful nuclear energy program.

By early 2025, intelligence reports indicated that Iran was closer to developing nuclear weapons than ever before, with the country escalating its uranium enrichment activities to 60% purity - far beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA and well beyond what is considered necessary for civilian purposes. The Institute for Science and International Security reported that Iran could enrich enough uranium for one nuclear bomb in just a week and accumulate enough for seven bombs within a month.

Facing this alarming situation, Trump sent a letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in March 2025, proposing new nuclear talks. While Khamenei initially rejected the offer, diplomatic channels remained open, leading to the first round of indirect talks in Oman on April 12, 2025. These discussions, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, were described as constructive despite the delegations meeting in separate rooms with messages relayed through Omani mediators.

Key Issues at Stake in the Negotiations

The current negotiations center around several critical issues that have proven challenging to resolve:

1. Uranium Enrichment: Perhaps the most contentious issue is whether Iran will be permitted to continue enriching uranium on its own territory. Iran has repeatedly stated that enrichment is a non-negotiable right, calling it a definite red line. The Trump administration has sent mixed messages on this point, with Trump himself calling for complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, while other officials have suggested Iran might retain limited enrichment capabilities for civilian purposes.

2. Existing Nuclear Stockpiles: Another major sticking point involves Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. While Iran intends to retain its enriched uranium within its borders, the US insists on transferring it to a third country. A senior adviser to Khamenei indicated that Iran is prepared to give up its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium in exchange for lifting all sanctions.

3. Sanctions Relief: Iran is seeking immediate and comprehensive sanctions relief, including access to frozen financial assets in the United States and authorization to export its oil. The US position on the timing and extent of sanctions relief remains unclear.

4. Verification Mechanisms: Establishing effective protocols for verifying that Iran is not working on nuclear weaponization presents another challenge. The previous JCPOA included provisions for international inspections, but the specifics of verification in any new agreement remain to be determined.

The American Perspective: Balancing Diplomacy and Pressure

The Trump administration has maintained a dual-track approach throughout the negotiations, combining diplomatic outreach with continued economic pressure and the implicit threat of military action. During his Middle East tour, Trump emphasized that there are two pathways to resolving the Iran nuclear issue: one is a very favorable route, and the other is more aggressive, but I prefer to avoid the latter.

Trump has made it clear that the current offer has an expiration date, stating, This is not an offer that will last forever. The time is right now for them to choose. This urgency reflects concerns about Iran's advancing nuclear capabilities and the potential for regional instability if a deal is not reached.

Within the US, public opinion on a nuclear agreement with Iran shows significant partisan divides. According to a recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Ipsos survey, 61% of Americans support US participation in an agreement that lifts some international economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for strict limits on its nuclear program. However, while 78% of Democrats and 62% of Independents support such a deal, only 40% of Republicans are in favor.

The administration's negotiating team, led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, has described their proposal to Iran as elegant and very big, though specific details remain confidential. Witkoff briefed the UN Security Council last Wednesday on the US proposal, indicating that while progress has been made, more work is needed.

The Iranian Perspective: Seeking Guarantees and Respect

From Iran's perspective, the negotiations represent an opportunity to achieve sanctions relief while preserving what it considers its legitimate right to a peaceful nuclear program. Iranian officials have consistently emphasized that while the country possesses the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons, they maintain that their program is for peaceful purposes only.

Iran's approach to the negotiations has been shaped by deep mistrust of the United States, particularly following the US withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA. A key concern for Tehran is obtaining guarantees to protect itself in the event that the US withdraws from or violates any new agreement.

In March, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded sharply to Trump's characterization of Iran, stating, Trump believes he can impose sanctions and intimidate us while discussing human rights. All the crimes and regional turmoil stem from their actions (the United States). He added, He aims to incite unrest within Iran.

Despite this rhetoric, Iran has continued to engage in the negotiation process. According to reports, during the talks in Oman, Iran proposed a three-step plan:

1. Iran would agree to temporarily lower its uranium enrichment to 3.67% in return for access to frozen financial assets and authorization to export its oil.

2. Iran would permanently halt high-level uranium enrichment, restore inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog, and commit to implementing the Additional Protocol, allowing for surprise inspections at undeclared sites if the United States lifts further sanctions.

3. The final step would involve US Congressional approval of the nuclear agreement and Washington lifting both primary and secondary sanctions.

International Reactions and Regional Implications

The ongoing negotiations have drawn significant attention from the international community, with various stakeholders expressing support for a diplomatic solution while emphasizing their own priorities.

The United Kingdom, Germany, and France have backed the talks and stated that Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. In May 2025, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy outlined that any new deal must include Iran not having a nuclear weapon, reversing its enrichment and other escalatory activity, and implementing verifiable measures.

In contrast to the situation in 2015 and 2018, Arab Gulf states are now more united and supportive of a deal with Iran. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have experienced tensions with Iran over its regional influence and backing for groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, are reportedly looking to contain and engage with Iran through diplomatic means.

Israel, which has long viewed Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, reportedly intended to attack Iran's nuclear facilities but was persuaded by the Americans to give the current negotiating effort a chance. Israeli officials have made it clear that any deal must address not only Iran's nuclear program but also its missile capabilities and support for terrorist groups - issues that Iran has described as red lines not open for discussion.

Challenges and Prospects for a Final Agreement

Despite the optimism expressed by President Trump, significant challenges remain before a final agreement can be reached. The gap between Iran's insistence on maintaining uranium enrichment capabilities and the US demand for strict limitations presents a fundamental obstacle. Additionally, the question of how to handle Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains unresolved.

The timeline for reaching an agreement is also unclear. While Trump's special envoy, Witkoff, reportedly aims to finalize the deal within 60 days, the complexity of the issues and the deep mistrust between the parties suggest that negotiations could extend beyond this timeframe.

Moreover, even if an agreement is reached, implementation and verification will present their own challenges. The experience of the 2015 JCPOA demonstrates that international agreements can be fragile, particularly when subject to changing political winds in the United States and Iran.

Nevertheless, the fact that both sides have continued to engage in negotiations despite setbacks and provocations suggests a genuine interest in finding a diplomatic solution. The economic pressures facing Iran and the desire to avoid military conflict provide powerful incentives for compromise.

The Road Ahead: What to Watch For

As negotiations continue, several key indicators will signal whether a final agreement is likely:

1. The scheduling of a fifth round of talks would indicate ongoing momentum and commitment to the diplomatic process.

2. Statements from Iranian officials, particularly Supreme Leader Khamenei, will provide insights into Tehran's willingness to accept the US proposal.

3. The reaction of the US Congress, which would likely need to approve any comprehensive agreement, will be crucial for the deal's long-term viability.

4. The positions of regional powers, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, could influence both the content of any agreement and its implementation.

The stakes of these negotiations extend far beyond the immediate question of Iran's nuclear program. A successful agreement could potentially reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, opening the door to broader regional cooperation and stability. Conversely, a failure to reach an agreement could lead to increased tensions, potential military conflict, and a nuclear arms race in one of the world's most volatile regions.

As President Trump stated during his visit to Qatar, I hope you can help me with the Iran situation. It's a perilous situation, and we want to do the right thing... because things like that get started and they get out of control. I've seen it over and over again. We're not going to let that happen. The coming weeks will determine whether this diplomatic initiative succeeds in preventing such an outcome.